Historical Perspective on Declining Beer Sales

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In the past ten days or so, global beermakers have reported declining beer sales. This surprises some observers, who assume that beer is the go-to drink during hard economic times. As Jeremiah McWilliams of Lager Heads notes:

At first glance, it would surprise us if the reason for slumping beer sales were weak economies. Beer is generally not that expensive. But we could be wrong about this — maybe people are cutting WAY back, starting with the six-packs.

Historical perspective puts the situation in context:

Put simply, and a bit crudely, when times are truly tough, poor people turn to hard liquor. And most people in the world are “poor,” at least relative to American or European living standards. For them, a “six-pack” is expensive, and, ounce for ounce, packs a smaller wallop than a bottle of spirits.

Here's a specific historical example: In the early 19th century, much of Europe was in political and economic turmoil. In what is now Germany, and in other parts of northern Europe, the “peasants,” as poor people were called then, could no longer afford beer or wine. Instead, they turned to “schnaps,” the generic name then for any cheap liquor made from whatever was available. In early 19th century Germany, schnaps was typically made from potatoes. (*1)

As the economy deteriorated, and more people switched from beer to hard liquor, brewers began closing their doors. Many migrated to the United States in search of work. (Among them was the Best family, which founded what eventually became Pabst Brewing.)

My educated historian’s guess tells me that the same thing is happening now in countries and regions around the world: Poor people who could afford beer a year ago are turning to cheaper spirits instead. In China, for example, the economy has all but collapsed in the past year. Many people in that rising middle class who might have drunk Heineken or Budweiser or Snow (the best-selling Chinese brand) will turn back to dirt-cheap -- and highly intoxicating -- spirits made from bamboo or rice. (*2)

So, too, in Latin America and eastern Europe, even if those regions seems relatively affluent. Brazil, for example, and Mexico, contain huge, sophisticated cities, but those cities are full of people who live close to disaster and who often scrounge for food. And most human beings don’t live in cities. They live in the country and are the first to feel the impact of global economic chaos. China may seem like a nation of urbanites, for example, but most Chinese people are still “peasants.”

So I’m not surprised that the global beer companies like SABMiller and others are reporting declining sales.

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*1: People viewed potatoes as fit only for animals, and turned to it for sustenance -- or drink -- only when “real” food was in short supply. (There’s a reason potatoes are associated with the Irish and the Irish famine.)

*2: The bamboo liquor will knock you flat on your ass in ten minutes flat. I speak from experience. We still have some in our house, leftover from our last trip to China. I keep my distance....

Ear-Witness Report from the Twitter Tasting

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Alan from the Good Beer Blog is another of those interesting contrarian guys (at least I assume he's a guy; I've never met him), and he's got a completely-worth-reading take on yesterday's Twitter beer tasting. I didn't partake, of course, for reasons noted here and here -- but now, well, geez, Alan's almost made a convert of me.

Why I Like Andy Crouch; or The Contrarian View of Twitter and Taste

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I try to cooperate. I try to do the right thing. But the sad fact is that, at heart, I'm not a group person. (I lasted a grand total of one week in Girl Scouts.

There's a reason I was put on earth to do history and write. Both require, well, not-groups...)

So, yes, I wonder about this whole facebook-myspace-twitter thing. (*1) "Wonder" meaning: I find them intellectually fascinating, but I don't engage in them myself. (*2) The internet and its associated spin-offs are fascinating. They constitute fundamental aspects of life in modern America and what I "do" is ponder life in these United States. That's what my books are about.

Ponder being the operative word. I observe rather than participate. (I know. Some of you are saying "Get over yourself. Get out there. Do it!" But really, it's not my nature.)

But if a pal wants to engage in life-as-we-know-it, I say, hey, have at it. Here's the info. And then along comes Andy Crouch, who says "I'm having none of it." A curmudgeon after my own heart. (*3)

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*1: According to Andy's post, the act of using twitter is "tweeting." Who knew?

*2: I'm on facebook or one of those sites because my step-daughter and son-in-law recently had a baby and they use it to share photos and news about him. I'm not sure which site it is because I bookmarked their page and otherwise never use the site. I'm also on Linked In, only because I had a lot of invitations and "being there" doesn't require much effort. Yes, I know. I need to get with the program, and eventually I will, but for now, well, the fact that I'm even writing and posting this (ie, I'm "blogging") is progress.

*3: I've never met Andy Crouch. Wouldn't know him if he walked in the room right now. Have no idea what he's like as a human being, except that, near as I can tell, he's a contrarian and a curmudgeon. Just like me.